OPINION
How I See COVID Panning Out
Opinion of a Non-Expert
Firstly, I would like to point out that the fact that I am acknowledging that I am a non-expert should be lauded. A lot of us don’t do that. A lot of us claim to be experts and convey unverifiable information to unsuspecting and gullible audiences, an act that unreservedly leads to mass hysteria. Just like when Trump said that bleach could cure one of COVID. But bless him, he’s off social media now so that’s been great for everyone.
Secondly, I would like to chat today about COVID. Everybody’s favourite C-word. Maybe second favourite for some. I can think of at least two other c-words that people might like better. Juvenile, I know.
That many of us thought 2021 would mean the end of COVID was obviously uncalled for. I kept wondering why people were celebrating the end of 2020 like it was the end of the pandemic, but I now realise that people were perhaps just happy to see the back of the year that brought in lockdowns and business restrictions and loss of normality.
2021 came and brought with it a new COVID variant and consequently a fatal wave of illnesses in several countries so that the loss of lives was unexpectedly record-breaking. And now 2022 has brought with it a new variant too, as if COVID said, “Hey, I’ve been around two years, let me bring out a new limited edition variant.”
The Omicron variant is indeed a limited edition variant- perhaps not in terms of the number of people being infected but definitely in terms of how long it is going to stay with us. Very confident statement to make, I realise, for someone who is openly acknowledging being a non-expert, but while there are countries that are experiencing a tsunami-like wave of cases, there are also other countries who have experienced their peak and trough already.
Think about South Africa. The variant was discovered just as we entered December and today, early January, the number of cases reported daily is declining. That was rather a short-lived wave. Think about the UK. The cases are notoriously high but at a consistent weekly average.
Additionally, as more and more people continue to get infected with the variant that is producing mild symptoms at worst at a reduced isolation period, it also means that more people would be gaining immunity and also coming out of the illness two weeks hence. Deaths remain at a low and vaccination drives remain the most sought-after solution to the pandemic.
When people panic about how life will never be the same again, I wish they would think about how life isn’t exactly as it was in 2020 either, where the world struggled with a virus that nobody knew anything about. Today, we are equipped with healthcare sectors around the world who have reasonable experience in COVID care, and a largely vaccinated population across most of the developed world.
I think we need to calm down. By its very nature, a virus will mutate and become a new and improved version of itself. That’s how a virus survives. That’s how the flu has survived since the 1800s.
Research does suggest that previous vaccine doses are turning out to be ineffective against Omicron- but that’s fine. That’s what happens with the flu every season, and that’s why new flu shots get administered every season.
That this new variant is mild and contagious is very characteristic of the flu- could this then mean that we are nearing the endemic stage? Some scholars would argue so. Not me, I am not a scholar, but actual scholars do argue for this.
The graph remains consistent among most countries- spikes around the winter and at the onset of the summer and relatively lower cases for the rest of the year. This is in concurrence with the rise of cases owing to the identification of the Delta and Omicron variants. Does this mean that new variants will be identified every winter? Will the next one be milder than Omicron? Can we call the next variant Omega and be done with COVID for good? Probably not, we did skip ten letters in the Greek alphabet and get to Omicron after Delta. We do have enough letters in the alphabet for more variants to be discovered. Whatever the case, if infections continue to be mild, what are we really stressed about?
The main pain points for any country in times of a healthcare crisis stem from pressure on hospitals and the country eventually turning into a sort of Australia, but for sick people instead of prisoners. And the solution for that is simple. Get yo’ ass vaccinated. I’ve already had a rather unprofessional rant about anti-vaxxers so I won’t go down that road again.I would however like to give Emmanuel Macron a shoutout for openly saying that he wants to annoy the unvaccinated. He is living the dream right now. Sure, in a world where political correctness has gone berserk creating a PC World if you will (literally, my jokes are on fire today), he runs the risk of never being able to run for power again, but he has used his position to say what the rest of the world is thinking but not saying- ‘I want to annoy the anti-vaxxers’. People like me can say it every day on our blogs and it won’t make a difference but when someone with the ability to actually go through with his actions can do it, it feels like a victory.
Nobody has claimed that vaccines will keep diseases at bay. However, everybody has repeatedly tried to get this tiny bit of useful info into people’s heads that vaccines will keep you away from the hospital. People keep arguing about civil liberties being compromised with things such as the vaccine passport, but is public health not the greater priority for a nation? Is the greater good not worth pursuing then? Are Emmanuel Macron’s actions truly that bad? His language, perhaps, but his intent- I don’t think so.
Everything eventually turns political and COVID turned political a long time ago. No political leader is in a position to put in place a lockdown. They either risk pissing off the entire country by slowing businesses down again-which is going to be helpful for no one- or, in some special cases, they risk being questioned yet again about the events of 18 December 2020 and in what true consciousness they can expect people to follow lockdown measures.
So, here’s how I see COVID panning out. A rough estimate of how the world is doing by late January. Another spike possibly in the summer. Another new variant discovered in the winter, milder than Omicron. Basically, a milder cold. We probably won’t even notice it.
So, perhaps we can all chill out, and revel in the fact that more restrictions are not likely unless the healthcare sector comes under increasing pressure-something that is in fact in our control if we get vaccinated- and that we might be nearing an endemic.
I could be so wrong about this, but based on my civil liberties I can say whatever I like on here and get away with it.
